Summary:

Could be more pullback next Tuesday. SPX 878 is the key to watch if the pullback does happen.

From seasonality statistics, Wednesday will be the 2nd most bullish day in May.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

Very short-term neutral to overbought plus the day after the Memorial day usually is bearish, so probably more pullbacks next Tuesday.

holiday_memorial 

According to 7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, if we do get a pullback Tuesday, watch SPX 878, bears must push the SPX down bellow it to prove themselves.

NvsN

Wednesday, by the way,  is the 2nd most bullish day in May.

Seasonality 

 

Not much else to say. Maintain “not bull friendly” view on intermediate-term. Refer to 05/21/2009 Market Recap: Follow Through for more details.

1.1.1 Nasdaq Composite (Weekly), looks bearish with 3 reversal bars in a row.

COMPQWeekly 

OEX/Equity Spread from www.sentimentrader.com, this is the same as my 2.8.2 Normalized CPCI:CPCE. If the spread between the OEX put/call ratio (representing big players) and the equity only put/call ratio is too large, the intermediate-term is usually not so good for bulls.

OEXEquitySpread  CPCIvsCPCE

3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, breakout! Lots of people believe that the US government could bring us a bull market, but if the stock market keeps going up then the bond yield will skyrocket too and therefore the long term mortgage rate and my question is how the real estate market is supposed to recover? Bellow is the comment form www.stocktiming.com，just for your reference.

  • 30 Year Yield:   Market forces want higher yields even as the Fed is trying to work 30 year mortgages down to "a target" of 4.25% to 4.5%.   The Fed's buying for the sole purpose of driving rates down, makes this an "interfered-with or manipulated" market.   As the Fed tries to drive down rates to below 4.5%, they are creating a bond bubble that will have a bad ending.  *** On April 29th, we started mentioning the probability that the 30 year yields would move up to 41.45.  On Friday, May 8th., 41.45 was hit on a spike up that took us even higher with a closing of 42.61. 
  • Yesterday, the 30 year yields jumped up again and closed at 43.13.  This was above both long term resistance levels.  The Fed still has over 250 billion to use in trying to keep yields and mortgages down ... we wish you luck, Ben.

TNX

Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from www.stocktiming.com，again for your reference.

instbsell