Summary:
Short-term bulls have a little edges.
Some "no good" signs may eventually have negative impact on the intermediate-term.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral |
No conclusion today, let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow. Short-term bulls have a little edge, not very sure though. Intermediate-term, lots of “no good” signs, just I have no idea when those signs will have negative impact on the stock market.
Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, oversold, so the market may keep rebounding tomorrow.
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), a black bar is formed, which may mean a pullback, and currently the pullback of the US$ is good for the stock market.
Some “no good” signs for your info:
1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily), unlike SPX, institutional core holdings index hasn’t reached a higher high yet, this is a negative divergence, which may mean that the recent SPX higher high was not made by institutional accumulation. From the Institution Buying and Selling Trending (Courtesy of www.stocktiming.com), also we can see that institutions weren’t the major part of the recent rally.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), SOX still lags. Statistics show that it’s good for the broad index whenever SOX leads, while no good for the broad index whenever SOX lags. From the chart, we can see when the market formed a bottom in Mar, SOX and COMPQ had a positive divergence, while now, they have a negative divergence.
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, rose again which means more (perhaps extremely) pursuing riskier asset, this usually is not good.
3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, yield cannot rise forever as the rising borrowing cost does no good for the economic recovery and this also means that the stock market cannot rise forever. Just right now I’m not sure where the limit is.
9 Comments