06/19/2009 Market Recap: Head and Shoulders Bottom or Bear Flag?

Summary:

Bull or bear, we might know on Monday.

Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index is way overbought.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral

No conclusion, let’s see how Monday unfolds, suspect tech sector might not very pleasant though. About short-term, the Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary has mentioned 2 things: 1. Statistically, Monday is a little bit “Bear Friendly”; 2. According to N vs N rule, bulls must push SPX above 946 on Monday to prove themselves.

From SPX 30 min chart, both bulls and bears have chances. Breakout on the upside, a Head and Shoulders Bottom is formed, then most likely the June high 956 will be tested; Breakout on the downside, a Bear Flag is confirmed, according to measured move, SPX will have about 53 points drop. Well, up or down? I have no idea. Trading wise, better wait after the breakout before joining bulls or bears.

1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. Well, yes, I know, there’s no egative divergence on the chart therefore this so called Bearish Rising Wedge might not that bearish. Just the Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index is at a record high now, so accordingly I think QQQQ has very good chances to pullback soon.

No much else to say, take a look at 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, short-term neutral, intermediate-term all sell signals now.

A few other charts for your references only:

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), Bullish Falling Wedge plus positive divergence, US$ could rebound which is not good for the stock market.