06/29/2009 Market Recap: Firework trading setup triggered

Summary:

Firework trading setup triggered.

I still see this rebound is weak, another up day tomorrow will probably change my view.

Expect a pullback at least tomorrow morning.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral

In the After Bell Quick Summary, I mentioned because CPC < 0.8, so 81% chances the market may close in green tomorrow, also a firework (means the stock market skyrocketing high) trading setup was triggered today. As I didn’t have enough data before posting the after bell quick summary therefore I also mentioned that I’m not sure if I could long from here. Now I have all the data, it seems that the market isn’t as overbought as I thought, so all I can say is possibly there could be a pullback at least tomorrow morning. Noted that my short-term prediction wasn’t very accurate recently (6/24 right, 6/25 wrong, 6/26 right, 6/29 wrong). From my experiences, once all my signals appear not worked so well then there’re possibilities the trend is shifting. So beware.

Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from www.stocktiming.com as per request. From this chart we can see that institutions have started accumulation again. This is another sign that trend maybe shifting.

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, 1 vs 5, bears won, personally, I still see it as a sell-able bounce. Well, I’ll shut up if we do see a firework tomorrow.

Reasons for a possible pullback at least tomorrow morning:

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), Bearish Rising Wedge plus lots of negative divergence.

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), new low (while SPX no new high) plus ENV 10 oversold plus STO way oversold. I believe that VIX will rebound soon, this means a pullback for SPX.