07/21/2009 Market Recap: 13 Trading Day Cycle

Summary:

Another chance of a turning day tomorrow.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Up	Overbought
Short-term	Up	Overbought

Bears may have another chance tomorrow. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), today is the end of a 13 trading day cycle, because it closed high so it should turn lower tomorrow. About the accuracy of the cycle, please refer to chart 7.6.1 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). At least it looks reliable to me. Because of AAPL ER in AH, I’m not sure if the market would rise huge tomorrow like it did after INTC ER, just if we had a gap up open tomorrow, it’d be the 3rd consecutive days the market opened with an up gap and the 8th unfilled gap on the SPY chart.

Speaking of the 8th unfilled gap, let’s take a quick look at 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily). It has way too many gaps, even with more restricted standards for gaps. If we had yet another gap tomorrow, well, don’t know what to say.

Nothing else new today. I don’t argue with my intermediate-term signal, so I don’t short here (exclude very very short-term though), but with market this bullish, I dare not chase high either.

2 tips from readers, just like to share with you.

Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com, SPX kept rising while cumulative TICK kept dropping, this is a negative divergence and probably a setup for a large pullback.