Summary:
Breadth picking up a little bit more strength today.
Still think this is sellable bounce as neither price nor volume were impressive.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | ||
| Intermediate | Down | Neutral | Intermediate sell signals still need further confirmation. |
| Short-term | Up* | Neutral | |
| My Emotion | Down |
Yesterday, I mentioned a newsletter I subscribed, think the pullback might be over as long as the market could up with strong breadth. The chart below shows the NYSE breadth today. The up volume to down volume ratio looks impressive to me, just the newsletter doesn’t have any update today, so I’m not sure in their eyes if this confirmed the pullback is over or not.
Personally, I still believe the pullback is not over yet, this is a sellable bounce. The reason is still that the price and volume are not impressive for those 3 days rebound. Again, SPX 1018 is the key, I won’t be convinced if, say, the market rises 5 days in a row and still couldn’t break above it.
7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, for 3 days in a row, we have price up volume down as the dominant price-volume relationships which is quite bearish. This is my argument for “volume not impressive”. Well, bulls did a little bit better today as both price up volume down and price up volume up actually cancelled each other, therefore it’s neither bullish nor bearish.
7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, down 2 days vs up 3 days, apparently bulls are weaker. This is my argument for “price not impressive”. In yesterday’s report, I quoted 2 past examples, here and here, both were breathtaking – one was up 5 days in a row and one was down 5 days in a row. From the comments I’ve got from this blog, I think someone didn’t get what I’m trying to say. Well, we'll see, maybe I’m wrong this time, but right now, I’ll stick to my setup.
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), Negative divergence plus possible Bearish Rising Wedge, so quite likely a pullback at least tomorrow morning.
2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, CPCE readings are now corrected. Just 0.51 is way too bullish, this is the main reason that I expect a red close tomorrow in the After Bell Quick Summary.
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