Summary:
QQQQ hit resistance.
Expect at least a short-term consolidation if there is no immediate pullback.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | ||
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral* | |
| My Emotion | Wait | Could repeat what happened after 8/17, so be careful bears. |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: QQQQ HIT RESISTANCE
Although theoretically SPX has no serious resistance until 1200ish, but 1.1.2 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Weekly), QQQQ has already hit resistance, and also 1.3.1 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) is not far from resistance area. So if QQQQ and IWM lag (because of resistance), whether SPX could rise to 1200 remains to be seen.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, still couldn’t close above 9794. 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, TRAN still failed to confirm the INDU’s new high.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT AT LEAST A CONSOLIDATION (no big up) IF THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE PULLBACK
Some record extremes mentioned in yesterday’s report were fixed today but they are still not far away from extremes, so short-term if there is no further pullback then those extremes could be hit again. In other words, there may not be much room left on the upside in the short-term.
8.1.5 Normalized CPCE, normalized CPCE may still have a little bit room on the downside. So this also means that there’s not much room left on the upside in the short-term.
1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, a hollow red bar was formed today which usually means a reversal. The chart below is a visual back test of “Overbought plus Hollow Red or Solid Black bar” trading setup. From chart we can see that very likely the market won’t be up much if there’s no immediate pullback.
1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), too much negative divergence, so there’s a possibility of an immediate pullback tomorrow. Not sure though.
