Summary:
Still could be very close to a short-term top.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | ||
| Long-term | Up | |||
| Intermediate | Down | Neutral | ||
| Short-term | Up | Neutral | ||
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model I | Watch Breakout | Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now. | ||
| ST Model II | Stopped out short flat on 10/08. No position held now. | |||
| VIX ENV | 10/06 L | *Adjust stop loss | 10/09 Low | |
| Reversal Bar | 10/05 L | *Adjust stop loss | 10/08 Low | |
| Up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row | 10/12 S | *Short at close | Hold 3 days | 61% winning rate since 2002. |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE
Nothing new. Still no clue about the intermediate-term direction. The bottom line:
1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, record high overbought breadth plus non-confirmation between INDU and TRAN, so I still believe in that there’ll be at least 10% correction.
SHORT-TERM: MAINTIAN THE CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK FORECAST
Short-term, I still think after consolidation (as we’ve had for the past few days) the market will pullback.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), SPY new high not confirmed by QQQQ, this kind of non-confirmation is bearish.
1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, black bar again, so 2 predictions: 1. Gap down open tomorrow. 2. Not far away from a short-term top.
Of course, today is a holiday, so whatever we saw may mean nothing. Let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow.
INTERESTING CHARTS:
I’ve posted a brief introduction about all the mechanical trading signals listed in the trend table, take a look if interested: Introducing Mechanical Trading Model
About the “SPY up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row” short-term short setup, the details are here: 10/12/2009 After Bell Quick Summary