Summary:
Fib confluences area could be the SPX intermediate-term target. Still worried about those so many unfilled gaps though.
Hollow red bar on VIX daily chart could mean a pullback tomorrow.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | EMOTION | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | Disbelieve | ||
| Intermediate | *Up | Neutral | No argue | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral | Yes! | |
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model I | 10/14 L | *Buy intraday | *10/06 Low | |
| ST Model II | Stopped out short flat on 10/08. No position held now. |
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| VIX ENV | 10/06 L | 10/13 Low | ||
| Reversal Bar | 10/05 L | *Adjust stop loss | 10/13 Low | |
| Up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row | 10/12 S | Hold 3 days |
61% winning rate since 2002. I covered intraday flat on 10/13. |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: FIB CONFLUENCES AREA COULD BE THE TARGET
Breakout to new high and all the conditions for a decisive breakout I mentioned in yesterday’s report are all met. Except for too many unfilled gaps, I can hardly find any big flaw for today’s rally. So check 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly) for the next possible target area.
Now the problem I’m most worried is that the unfilled gaps are way too many. This has never happened before. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), 9 high to low gaps so far, this is too much.
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK TOMORROW
Tomorrow is most likely a consolidation day. Besides the reasons mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, the hollow red bar in 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily) also could mean a pullback for the stock market.
3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), lots of positive divergences, plus the US$ leading indicator, 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily) dropped ahead of the US$ today, so the chance is good for the US$ to rebound tomorrow which also could mean a pullback for the stock market.
INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE