Summary:
VIX may drop further.
Could be a short-term pullback soon.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | EMOTION | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | Disbelieve | ||
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral | No argue | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral | Yes! | |
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model I | 10/14 L | 10/06 Low | ||
| ST Model II | Stopped out short flat on 10/08. No position held now. |
|||
| VIX ENV | 10/06 L | *Adjust stop loss | *10/14 Low | |
| Reversal Bar | 10/05 L | 10/13 Low | ||
|
|
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: VIX MAY DROP FURTHER
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), outside bar usually means a continuation, so VIX may drop further and therefore the stock market may rise further. Just be careful, VIX is a double edged sword, if dropped too much the market may be topped.
Not much new to say, maintained the target market in chart 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly).
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A SHORT-TERM PULLBACK SOON
Tomorrow is the OE day, so no idea what will happen. Just I see some signs of a short-term top, so if the market rise further tomorrow, better take some profit.
8.1.5 Normalized CPCE, this is the main reason I expect a short-term pullback, a little bit too low, although comparing with the past extremes there’s still some room on the downside.
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), lots of negative divergences, so the pullback could happen as early as tomorrow.
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), the black bar has a higher chance to lead a reversal, so US$ could rebound further which may mean a pullback of the stock market.
1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, the “very close to a short-term top” prophecy carried by the black bar is not over yet and another reversal like hollow red bar was formed today, so still QQQQ could pullback further.
INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE