Summary:
Could be a Bullish Broadening Tops is in the forming.
A little bearish biased toward tomorrow.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | EMOTION | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | Disbelieve | ||
| Intermediate | Down | Neutral | ||
| Short-term | *Up | Neutral | ||
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model | 11/30 L |
*Adjust Stop Loss |
*Breakeven |
|
| Reversal Bar | 11/30 L |
*Adjust Stop Loss |
*Breakeven |
|
| NYMO Sell | 11/24 S |
*Stopped out short position flat. |
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| VIX ENV | ||||
| Patterns ect. |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BUILDING A TOP
Maintain the “building top” forecast. For details please see 11/27/2009 Market Recap. However there’s a possibility that the market is forming a Broadening Top pattern. The Dubai drama could be seen as a partial decline, therefore the pattern has 72% chances of breaking on the upside. The pattern is especially clear on the COMPQ daily chart. See below. Personally, I admit there’s a chance that the market could break the Broadening Top on the upside, just I don’t believe the text book target yet, looks too high to me.
SHORT-TERM: COULD PULLBACK AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING
No solid evidences for tomorrow, just a few not so convincing bearish charts so the market could pullback at least in the morning.
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), hollow red bar usually means a reversal. 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), Bullish Falling Wedge plus lots of positive divergence. So looks like the dollar could rebound tomorrow which is not good for the stock market.
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), black bar could mean a pullback, also not good for the stock market.
INTERESTING CHARTS:
Just want you to know that 2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, trend line not held, therefore the top signal mentioned yesterday was invalid.
