09/17/2010 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks up 3 weeks, next?

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK, BUT THE MARKET MAY CONSOLIDATE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS

Still expect a pullback, so maintain the forecast mentioned in 09/13 Market Recap: Expect a pullback, but it may occur after a few days small up or consolidation.

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, so far fits what I’ve been describing – consolidation after 09/13. With 2 hollow red bars and 1 filled black bar, the chances of reversal are increasing day by day, so my advice is still - don’t get too bullish. Although theoretically, the breakout after a consolidation could be on either side so there’s a chance that the final breakout is on the upside. But, for me, based on all the evidences so far I’ve collected, the chances of a breakdown is much higher.

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), negative divergence plus bearish Rising Wedge or Ending Diagonal Triangle in terms of Elliott Wave theory, looks bearish too.

However, because the FOMC is on 09/21, while from 6.5.1a SPX and FOMC chart below, it’s rare for the market to drop hard before the FOMC while FOMC itself could be a pivot point, so my guess is that the market could consolidate to 09/21 before a little bit bigger pullback.

From time analysis point of view, the next pivot date could be around 09/21 to 09/23. The reason, except as listed in the table above, the Full Moon  and the Solar Term date are both on 09/23, the Gann Day table below also shows several convergences around 09/23. Besides, I wonder if you ever paid attention that interestingly, most recent pivot dates were around day 25 of each month! Since 09/25 is Saturday plus FOMC factor as mentioned above, so my guess is the pivot date would be a little bit earlier this time, therefore 09/21 to 09/23 are the most possible.

The chart below shows how many pivot dates are on each day of each month since year 2000. Apparently day 21 and 22 are the most possible pivot day as there’re total 8 important pivot dates happened on those 2 dates. I think this is related to the fact that OE Day and FOMC are usually around those dates. This is very similar to what I’ve discussed in 08/03 Market Recap that day 6 of each month usually is pivot date because Non Farm Payroll is around while according to 6.5.1b SPX and NFP that Non Farm Payroll is usually pivot date and this can also be seen from the chart below as day 6 was a pivot date 5 times for the last 10 years. Coincidently, day 6 and day 21/22 are also around Solar Term date, while Solar Term date is when the Earth moves to a position that is spaced 15° apart along the ecliptic, which rule was found by Gann who liked Astrology many years ago, and here came the Gann Angle etc etc…… In short, I believe all those coincidences are simply because some monthly economic data are scheduled around, not because the Earth moved another 15°.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AFTER THE NEXT WEEK

I’m bullish biased toward the intermediate-term. We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the very first leg up. The argument is down 3 consecutive weeks then up 3 consecutive weeks, see the chart below highlighted in green, that most cases were happened in the middle of an up hill.

The statistics below are since 1962. Down 3 consecutive weeks then up 3 consecutive weeks, buy at close this Friday, sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks later at Friday close, we can see hold to the next next and next next next week, the winning rate can be above 70% especially the next next week.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCHING DOW DOWN 6 OF LAST 7

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 6 of last 7. Five in a row 2002 – 2006 with heavy losses 2002 – 2005. Also see September’s Triple Witching for more statistics.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

*LA = Lateral Trend.