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SHORT-TERM: VIX BB LONG SETUP TRIGGERED, BUT SPY ST MODEL MAY CHANGE INTO SELL MODE SOON
Reiterate 2 leg down pattern mention in 11/16 Market Recap, whether is the first leg down over, we’ll have to see tomorrow.
The VIX BB Long Setup mentioned yesterday was confirmed today, and also if paid attention to the table above about SPY ST Model, then you should’ve seen that a potential long setup could be triggered tomorrow. However, both are facing validity problem because the precondition for both is that SPY ST Model must be in buy mode. The problem now is if not huge up tomorrow, then very likely SPY ST Model will be in sell mode (maybe Friday). I don’t mean that you shouldn’t long, I just mean to provide info that you should be aware. At least for SPY ST Model long setup, the sell mode means close long position, in another word is if long confirmed tomorrow, there’s good chance that the day after tomorrow, I’ll ask you to close the long position. By the way, the SPY ST Model has over 80% winning rate and above 2 gain loss ratio since 2002, to this I mean the model is not a joke, I offer it for free but it doesn’t mean it’s a garbage.
Another thing I want you to know is, as promised, I said I’d keep reporting whatever institutions are doing. Well, here’s the most recent chart (courtesy of stocktiming, the chart is for yesterday's data). Looks to me, institutions are not very enthusiastic about the Quantitative Easing II, as the distribution now is even greater than accumulation.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY
See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK
See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.
For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 11/16 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. |
| IWM | Island Reversal, target $69.75. | |
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 11/16 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | %B is a little too low. |
| FXE | *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc is way too high. | |
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 11/16 S | Island Reversal, target $54.64. |
| GDX Weekly | UP | BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback? |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | %B is too high with negative divergence. |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 11/16 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | XLB:SPX a little too high. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.