|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
The market is not as strong as it feels because although multiple indices hit new high today but the NYSE Intraday Cumulative Tick showed great sell pressure which is very rare. Considering all the bearish extremes I’ve been blah blah recently, I think it’s time to be careful now.
Whether we’ll see a short-term pullback which lasts for a few days, we’d know as early as tomorrow because tomorrow is FOMC which is generally bullish but if it closes in red, then it’d be a bad sign.
For others, I bet you’ve already known – yes, more bearish extremes. As mentioned in the weekend report, all those bearish extremes would work eventually, the result would be a pullback similar to that of November or even April. The problem is it’s very difficult to timing so I’ll just keep piling up those bearish extremes in the table above.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, when both CPC and CPCE are extremely low, a top could be very close.
8.1.4 Normalized CPC, it’s just MACD(10,200,1) on CPC so as to eliminate different bases during different period. The chart is arguing for a top now.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010, ISEE Equities Only Index closed large than 260 again. Retailers are simply way too bullish.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, THERE’S MORE BULLISH COUNT, BUT I DON’T BELIEVE THAT FOR NOW
See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK
See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/02 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc too low. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | Bearish Engulfing plus channel resistance, could see more pullbacks. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.