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SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A BREAKOUT THEN BACK TEST THE BREAKOUT POINT, SEASONALITY FAVOURS BEAR THOUGH
The pullback before the close doesn’t mean bull or bear, the chart looks like a breakout then back test the breakout point, so I’ll temporarily maintain SPY target at $126.72. I still think a pullback of some kind is just a matter of time. As I’ve mentioned many times, whenever you see my short-term model holds both long and short (or hold short) overnight, chances are high a pullback of some kind has started. For now the short-term model holds nothing, see table above, so it’s probably not a good time to expect a pullback. In order to avoid a confusion between SPY ST Model and short-term model, I’ve changed the short-term model position to the last row of the table above. Now should be clear that Non-Stop, ST Model and Short-term Model are 3 different models, they represent mid-term, intermediate-term and short-term separately. Because each different time frame has its own good and bad merit, so maintain a position for each model at the same time is not a bad idea.
Seasonality wise, however, the rest 2 days of the week favours bear:
- According to Stock Trader’s Almanac (2011), last trading day of the year, NASDAQ down 9 of last 10.
- Since the August 2009, short at today’s close and cover at Friday close, 14 out of 16 winning rate.
Besides the above, I have nothing else to say, a follow up though: CPCE trend line held again today, so now should have no doubt that this is a valid breakout. Well, again, the question is whether it works or not this time?
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: LAST WEEK AND THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY BEARISH
See 12/23 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/21 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Clear breakdown below consolidation range, be careful. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | The 2nd test of the previous low, so there’s a chance EURO is bottomed around here. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.