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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD
I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary because the recap and the summary basically are going to say the same thing – could see some weakness ahead (in short-term of course). If you want to know the demo account result, obviously it’s a winning trade. The biggest problem for the demo account is very poor gain loss ratio (which I’m still working on) not the winning rate, so generally just don’t expect it to have failed trade very often.
The market action today is enough to make me give up any bearish bias as a “bear moral supporter” (mainly because if the market simply goes up everyday then very soon, nobody would be interested in reading my daily blah blah, 
). However, surprisingly, the poll (opened just hour ago, so it’s understandable that only 92 people participated) from My Forum shows that actually lots of bears see some hopes (via the market action) today. I won’t say bullish or bearish here as it’s up to you to see “half empty” or “half full”. The poll is in Chinese but I happened to know some English so it should be easy to understand.
For short-term, I expect a pullback of some kind for 2 reasons:
- INDU has been up 6 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, you have 73% chances to win something.
- SPY up 3 days in a row but the volume down 2 days in a row (so called price volume negative divergence), bears may have some edges in 6 trading days.
P.S. In case you want to ask, no, there’s no edges when both VIX and SPX close in green on the same day.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | BPNDX is way too overbought. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | DOWN | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | DOWN | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | DOWN | |
| XIU.TO | 02/04 L | *TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | DOWN | STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times. |
| GDX | 02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | DOWN | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 01/25 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 02/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | DOWN | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.