SHORT-TERM MODEL THINKS THE TREND IS UP, HOLDING LONG POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND
First of all, take a time to vote our new poll, maybe you have a 3rd thought now? It’s interesting to see how sentiment shifts as the market unfolds, if you compare the poll 1 with the poll 2. Let’s see if the market has now convinced most of us.
No idea about the next Monday, seems more green than red recently.
Cobra Impulse System reopened a long position again today.
Enjoy your weekend!
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hao
shame on you bears …..really, shame on u !! had me fooled forsure!! 🙁
great article on ZH if anyone missed it: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-nine-days-short-squeezes-and-vapor-volume
great week to you cobra, you called the prices nearly dead on. hope you made a bundle! have a good weekend.
ASTRO Update…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-sun-0-saturn-2000-2010.html
Sir, could u enable commenting on ur blog? that way we can open a communication. thx.
We will be down Mondays and Tuesday ( at least next 2 days if not for next 2 weeks ). I will short the futures at the open in Sunday. This is not recomindation.
dowtrader,
you have been a huge bull for the past two weeks (successfully so), and you have some great charts. can you tell us why you have a change in outlook? you have some great charts, i’d love to see them supporting this as well.
thanks!
jarbo
I opened a small short position 15 minutes before the close but I will add more as I said. The signal have 100% win rate since Mar,09 low.. even if you were short after that deep low, you would win ( imagine that ?!!).. the minimmum target is 25 point ES and the average target is 50 points ES. and those targets are for bull market, in bear market, the target can go to more than 1000 points in Dow easly.
in the same time the stop ratio to the target is good ( depend on your risk and strategy ).
I think Cobra will mention that signal in his report, if didn’t mention it or if he didn’t see it, then I will mention it 🙂
just to tease some bears here,
Hey bears, wanna know and see the signal ?
Definitely if you care to share? I’m guessing it’s not NYMO…
ditto, I’d like to know the signal.
i’ll wait for the report to see, but i appreciate your elaboration. NYMO has been firing all week, and not much has been following through. you seem fairly confident and precise with the measure of the pullback, so i’m going to guess a combination of a couple of technical indicators. i look forward to reading more about it.
those polls are good. look at poll1 and poll2, more and more people are convinced to the upside.
Thanks Cobra and have a nice weekend!
Cobra, thank you for your outstanding works and poll.
my question, the polls are different.
First poll is for next couple months; second poll is only for Oct.
I think it is big difference.
Have a good weekend.
Yeah, I know, the next time I’ll make sure they’re the same. Thanks.
thats correct.. NAMO above 80
Must be prepared for some draw down though.
It is also the option week which makes Vix a star
If VIX could gap down the next Monday, that’d be prefect. 🙂
Does volume play a part in your T.A. because most of move up, has been on really low volume. Even IBD comments that its hard to find stocks with good patterns with above avg, volume? TIA
long time ago I had a method on trading daily SPX based volume, and it was good but I always have problem with the stops, it was based on averaging at key areas and I don’t use it now. for example today and Oct,10 ( today have a higher rate to win than Oct,10 ) must be retraced completely based on volume but the strategy is based on averaging starting from Tuesday… this was very old method and common in the past for hedge funds specially in the long side ( very risky in the short side).I
I knew and saw my self almost every trade for a german guy in 2008 decline for 60 days ( Sep, and Oct ) in a row making 25 points each day (on the average ) from ES only ( he also trade NQ, DAX, and YM ) … it is like the pattern that have a multiple same color that have at the last the bigger bar also have low winning rate but nice to watch.
In trading, as you all here know, you want what makes you win and have a high winning rate with good risk reward ratio. that what matter
but now I don’t use volume in any of my strategies because there winning rate is not that high. But Cobra uses volume in an intraday basis in a very nice way.
from my trading journal: stock of the week, charts and notes.
click on my name for the link.
i still think there’s a good chance we drop on monday, just a tad bit.
Look at the upper band of the bollinger in the daily EUR chart how was trending down and now flat and price hitting the dead flat BB . In the daily chart, it is rare for a liquid market like EUR to reverse a trending BB to the opposite direction just like that. They can do it in an intraday but not in the daily and weekly. but who knows, this market crazy enough to do it.
in the same time the price testing the lower level of the broken trading range which is now should be a resistance.
also want to mention that the correlation between ES and EUR hit a new all time level since mid September until now registering new records.
SP500 Cycle 22 33 44 66 99 CD…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/sp500-cycle-22-33-44-66-99-cd.html
Brilliant!!!!—–It was a Fibonnaci 55days from the July 7 high to the August 31high (Jeff Cooper calls it the Gann panic cycle)…44 days later is October 14. Last year, the pre-flash crash high of 4-26-10 to the July 1 low was 66 days. 56days from 5-6…..I am slipping. I normally keep closer track of such cycles. Just hard to believe a hard selloff would start on opex week but its looking like it will happen.
SP and most indices closed at the high of the week with multiple divergences on most indicators on the 60min time frames and even the final tick at the close that saw most indices make a slightly higher high than about a half an hour earlier put an RSI divergence on the 5 min time frame (previous high RSI reading was too extreme). It’s all setting up similarly to those carnage Mondays from Sept. 2008.
About a 14% rally off the October 4 low for SP. September 18,19, 2008 had a two day 11.6% rally. March 2008, per Tom DeMark had a 14% rally but I think September 2008 is more applicable.
The baltic dry index continues to surge. This was never mentioned ONCE anywhere except by one guy I heard on CNBC over the past few months. The bears are totally missing the big picture because they’re so focused on all the hysteria in the media — the same hysteria that only dumb money trades on. Yes, dip buying this market still works. Some kind of consolidation is due now but the facts remain. Recession was always off the table. No serious trader or economist (not the ones found on TV) thought there was actually a recession, and now my view is being realized finally, which means it’s time to get less bullish! But I’m still very very bullish overall in the bigger picture since no bearish signals are showing up.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show%5Bs216179515%5D&disp=P
Ben,
While I don’t agree that the BDI is a particularly useful trading indicator (or even really a macro indicator, because of the way it is formulated makes it very skewed in response to supply/demand via container crediting. It is as much or more a reflection of speculative leverage and reflects margin trends more than supply/demand) I very much agree with you that the environment is overwhelmingly bearish right now.
So the NDX is practically at a new 10 year high. How does that fit in
with these P3 Elliot Wave counts? They make no sense whatsoever,
100% agreed. I have been proposing very different thoughts for quite some time. Here is an update on them if you are interested: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/10/revisiting-large-count.html . It seems like the majority of EW bloggers are focused on P3 down. Then the next largest segment (tiny in comparison to the P3ers) are focused on a new secular bull market. Then there is a very tiny portion (like me) that thinks we have something more complicated going on right now.
But for the time being, FWIW I don’t think this cyclical bull market is done.
And then we’ve got something in between. 😉
http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/8740/indultew092311.jpg (drawn up a few weeks back)
And then we’ve got something in between. 😉
Exactly 🙂 I suppose the market could just crash here in P3 down, or I suppose it could wind up dramatically in a new secular bull. But I don’t think either one is likely. All of the possibilities in the middle are much more likely, IMO. Nice count 🙂