SHORT-TERM MODEL HAS NO IDEA ABOUT THE TREND, HODING NO POSITION OVERNIGHT
First of all, let’s vote HERE, I’d like to know if the market is strong enough to make every bears giving up as I sensed from the today’s intraday comment thread.
The most bullish part of the week has passed, tomorrow is the bear’s only chance of a week, although so called a bearish Thursday, it had only 60% chances to close in red since the Aug lows.
hummmm…dificult to say. But my move is down. My move and my bible system.
Maket it short a 1242.Tomorrow it’s another day.
http://spx500.blogspot.com/
SP500 Fibo…Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/sp500-fibotime-ratio.html
cobra, I think you really means” The most bearish part of the week has passed…”
right?
the most bullish part has passed.
I understand bears’ frustration, but today’s candle is more bearish than bullish.
BPNYA up 1.63%, BCOMPQ up 1.21%, BPOEX down 2.56%, BPNDX down 2.99%, BPSPX down 0.57%, BPiNDU flat. BPSPX chart looks short term toppish.
can not wait for your market outlook tonight ! COBRA !! 🙂
it should start tanking tomorrow…..
Apart from the surprise reversal; the close is not really bullish.
Wow what a whipsaw day. Initiated shorts at open closed 1/2 with partial gap fill and the other half on full gap fill then initiated shorts right before close 50% position. I was thinking that might be the wrong move and it may be early, but the more I study this the greater I believe the odds are that we can’t clear 1250 before a nice breakdown toward 1200. All of my charts were pointing toward a move toward 1200 include descending wedge breakdown etc. I just figured there would be another shot up before we got traction down. Now looking at todays close we had a lower low and a lower high and a bearish candle overall. I will be adding to shorts tomorrow. Expecting a move toward the pbar by Monday.
Laura, none of my business, but you’re going against a breakout at 1231.90 and dynamic P&F shows next resistance up at 1269.2 (I think these kind of charts are for free at stockcharts.com).
fair enough but one could just as easily change box size, simple breakout is perhaps not the most valuable/effective way to use P&F charts unless you are a longer term investor
I would suggest this book for anyone that wants to use them:
http://www.amazon.com/Definitive-Guide-Point-Figure/dp/1897597630
a basic 3 box has bullish objective over 1500 on cash S&P…..but thats decidedly not a stance a “trader” would get married to.
every time you go against something there is typically a counter-argument, or two sides to every story, as we learn from Aesops Fables.
Thanks for the amazon lead, didn’t know the book. But I’m not naive, know P&Fs pretty well, not only theoretically. P&F mostly show wrong targets, but show resistance/support very well. What Laura does is none of my business, but I tend to get annoyed when I see comments which show that people just don’t know what’s going on… 1269 was key Thursday and we now know what happened. Hope you were on the right side of the trade.
most books that claim they are “the” book to read on a subject and then fall short but that P&F book is the best I’ve ever seen, fwiw. I utilize some P&F for client accounts but don’t trade off them much myself.
I hear you though about certain comments here, I don’t comment much anymore and instead just read the site each day, has become too popular for my tastes but I pretty clearly spelled out my wave count out here back when several had an impulse wave marked to the downside and were looking for wave 5 and new lows to come (you can check the activity under my handle) indeed, I’ve been long all month though I was incorrect in my entry timing on some names overall though October has been fantastic, per my count that I put out….I don’t primarily use elliott wave to finalize trades, its simply a roadmap and I’m more of a neo-wave student anyway, most people on the web do orthodox work only today however, I put hedges on longs and swung short for a time, looking for some retrace up until thanksgiving or so, while it would appear some readers of this site want detailed charts as for the reason why I’m content to simply say what I did and things will work out how they work out, I could really care less about all peoples reasons why they do whatever, knowing their position(s) tell you enough. People need to do their own work when risking their money….of course, I do enjoy looking at your charts, and a few others here, hehe.
Tks for the input, interesting. I tend to write too much for the comment section, but it helps me to look more closely at a chart, I notice things I’d otherwise neglect. By the way, I enjoy this site because Cobra looks at things very differently, operates differently.
Cobra is primarily why I keep coming back, just don’t read most of the comments anymore, its still a great site to review his work on its just that with any blog that becomes popular you end up attracting a lot of nonsensical comments and a bunch of charts with incorrect application of concepts and people that get angry if you mention that, not the best use of my time but everyone’s different, I could see how some people would instead benefit from exactly that.
Very difficult for me to optimize my time when I’m trading. Difficult for me to multitsk trading with other activities, as I now have few positions which I hold onto for more than a week. My activity here keeps me focussed. As to the nonsensical – in general I kind of filter it out, hardly notice it, but sometimes it does annoys me: that’s why I wrote to Laura!
Holy, Cow !
The P-bar disappeared !
Any thought?
THX!!!
So far this week was easy: we knew that 1200 is the floor (P&Fs show this) and we also knew that 1220/1230 is strong support (MAs, BBs), we also knew that support tends to be retested after a breakout. So the move down on Tuesday was kind of predictable, as was the bounce on Wednesday. I see the next target in the 1270/82 area, I presume SPX will close at the lower end of that range Thursday.
As to the guy who increased his short positions at Wednesday’s lows (check Cobra’s intraday forum). This guy was having fun with his new Ferrari and was pushing it to the limit, he did not care to look at the traffic signals.
Years ago there was a great movie by Fellini, Toby Dammit (Spirits of the Dead). Terence Stamp plays a successful actor who’s having it all, status, money, women… But driving along the highway at night he treats road markings with contempt. Good movie for all traders – even for those who want to blow an account!