SHORT-TERM: MONDAY MIGHT BE THE KEY DAY

First of all, take a little time to vote. The intraday forum has above 1K registered IDs (all had passed the test proving to be traders with good stock market knowledge), but usually around just a hundred is willing to vote, that’s a little bit low.

Officially now both intermediate-term and short-term are up (see table at the end of this report before the Chinese Transcript). In addition, bulls have 2 more good news:

  • Could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming on the SPX daily chart therefore chances are high it’ll continue up from here.

SPXDaily

HHGuaranteed

So if this is a football match, now bulls got the ball and are attacking. The bear’s hopes rely on the following 2 charts, which I’d say 50 to 50 chances.

  • As mentioned in the 11/09 Market Outlook, because NYADV closed too low so most likely a lower close ahead. But instead of lower close, SPX rose 2 consecutive days thereafter. The question now is: Was the lower close ahead dead? The chart below shows all the cases when NYADV closed extremely low and SPX rose 2 days in a row thereafter. Clearly we can see, the next Monday is the key, another up day would mean no lower close ahead.

NYADV

  • The chart below is the bear’s 2nd hope: Although up 2 days in a row and neither were small, the money flow however is negative. This is very similar to what happened from Oct 26 to Oct 28, so if up Monday again with another negative money flow, (perfectly) with even larger money outflow, then be careful of the famous “Turnaround Tuesday”.

MoneyFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: MONDAY MIGHT BE THE KEY DAY

先提醒一下，别忘了投票哈。

Officially中期和短期现在都是up。牛牛目前有两个好消息：

SPXDaily

HHGuaranteed

如果用足球比赛做比喻的话，现在是牛牛得球，在进攻中。熊熊的希望在于下面两幅图，胜算都不高，50%吧。

  • 我在11/09 Market Outlook里提到了NYADV too low，往往意味着lower close ahead。但是此后SPX却连涨两天，那么是不是这个lower close ahead就无效了呢？下面的图是NYADV extremely low以后SPX又连涨两天的情况。可以看到，周一是key，如果再涨的话，大概就没有lower close了。

NYADV

  • 下面的图是熊熊的第二个希望，虽然连涨两天，幅度都不小，可是资金却是净流出，其情形非常类似10月26号到10月28号的情况。所以，如果周一又涨，但是还是资金尽流出，且比本周五还大的话，小心turnaround Tuesday。

MoneyFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.