SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS UP, HODING BOTH LONG AND SHORT (TRAPPED) OVER THE WEEKEND
First of all, it’s poll time, let’s VOTE!
The bottom line, wondering whether the law of inertia no longer applies? Well, certainly there’s a possibility because you Earth people have a magic called printing, but if you paid attention to the NYADV chart I showed you last night, you’d know the next Monday is the key: whether we’d see a lower close (than the Nov 9 close) soon or never. And by the way, that’s why I said last night that we need see today and the next Monday.
So, will we see another up Monday? I don’t know but certainly chances are not high for yet another big up day because NYADV and TICK are too high. And the seasonality is not very bull friendly as well, you can find it at the “Trader’s Calendar” at the top right corner of the site’s home page. Enjoy your weekend!
Hi Cobra,
Thanks again for your ever so diligent efforts. =) Btw, where do I find the “Trader’s Calendar” section to access the seasonality studies? Thanks! =)
at home page
thx,ding
Bullish percentages were slightly positive or flat at Friday’s close: BPNYA +0.43%, BPCOMPQ +0.11%, BPOEX and BPINDU flat, BPSPX + 1.39%, BPNDX + 1.54%.
BP charts are not giving any new hint for next week, so I’ll show weekly NYAD cumulative with MA 55.
NYAD conveys two messages to the long term trader/investor: first message is for the bulls: 2011 is different than 2008, second message is for the bears: NYAD could be forming a double top. Last but not least: the set-up of this chart was Michelle’s idea – thanks!
(Definition of NYAD by chartschool/stockcharts.com: The AD Line is a breadth indicator that reflects participation. A broad advance means the vast majority of stocks are participating and this will cause the AD Line to move sharply higher. A narrow advance shows limited participation that will cause the AD Line to move slightly higher. Declines can also be broad or narrow. A broad-based advance shows underlying strength that lifts most boats. This is bullish. A narrow advance shows a relatively mixed market that is selective. Narrowness in an advance or decline sets up the divergence signals. An advance with narrow participation is unlikely to keep up with the underlying index and a bearish divergence will form. Similarly, a decline with narrow participation is unlikely to keep up with the index and a bullish divergence will form. These divergences can help chartists identify important reversals in the market.)
The NYAD may still be leading higher. Nice chart as always.
Here’s a little tribute to the chart posters in the intraday thread. [Only those who actually post charts though – too much time is wasted following links. My question is, if someone thinks they’ve got a chart that’s worth posting, why not post it? Why not make the effort to click “insert image” (one person, one time) instead of making EVERYONE (that’s right, everyone and every time) click and follow your link? Unless it’s just to drive people to your site, in which case one’s own credibility is undermined along with the value of the chart, and the sock puppet suspicion is introduced. And when all that could be avoided by simply posting . . . ]
great chart man!
Thanks HighRev, apparently we all agree that 1260/90 is resistance and a break to the upside would be meaningful… That’s nice, we all agree.
But does this mean that TA aficionados and traders are able to reach consensus, whereas politicians in Washington, Brussels, Athens and Rome are a bunch of bigots? Would we be far better politicians than those in office, because we know that circles can’t be squared?
Whatever, I’d be voted out of office very soon, my blonde secretary…
Very nice chart! In fact, i’ve been following very similar situation for months, not only about A/D Line (T2100 on FreeStockCharts). I’ve one setup on FSC: 3day chart (3 day per candle – excellent stuff on FSC), with EMA 10/66 and watching it on several indices, indicators etc. Here is the chart for this A/D Line which basically says the same as yours: EMA 10 has almost bearish crossed 66 in September 2007, but it didnt. Instead, it made bearish cross in the middle of November. And March-May 2008 didnt produce bullish cross (like EMA 10/55 did for a couple of days). Bullish cross in May 2009, and in the beginning of October 2011 bearish cross was nullified (i think that it happend for one day – of 3 days in a candle!) by “sudden jump” from 10xx bottom in SPX (Again, EMA 10/55 produced bearish cross).
These EMA 10/66 crossings seem to be a little more accurate than 10/55, because sometimes they avoid it “by a hair” – like this on October 7 2011 3day candle (10.198 vs 10.186 – its only 0,11%, LOL)
My long term SPX chart shows that the markets could go either way next week, rouge/noir play with equal odds. Monday is going to be interesting.
The second chart was posted here last weekend by someone – I don’t remember his/her name. It shows the importance of this Friday’s close: 1263 is the upper boundary of the yellow channel (screenshot of the chart I found here last weekend, chart it is not updated).
Both charts convey the same message…
the 4th option is gap down sharply. All your 3 options are up first, so the 4th one must be down because from your chart the price hits multiple resistances. It seems that you don’t read them as resistances?
Of course you’re right, I was just imitating Rick Perry in Michigan…
I knew you’re kidding. I just want to make sure I read your chart right. I cannot draw chart like you (and perhaps nobody can), but I’d make sure I understand your chart correctly.
The second chart was posted by ZimZeb. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2011/11072011-market-outlook-a-reliable-top-signal/#comment-358058304
I think there’s a real good possibility that the S&P puts in a double top – that would mean a jump above your middle fork that lasts for 2-4 weeks and then a major failure perhaps right smack dab in the middle of the Christmas season (don’t ask me what the news event(s) might be – I’m only going on TA).
EURUSD FTSE DAX Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd-ftse-dax-time-ratio.html
NAS Time Ratio…
SP500 DJI Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/sp500-dji-fibo.html
OIL GOLD SILVER Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/oil-gold-silver-fibo.html
ASTRO Update Sun 180 Jupiter…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-sun-180-jupiter-2000-2011.html
1. My reading of EUR/USD daily Head and Shoulders pattern gave me a bearish bias…2. SPX daily looks as a bullish pennant…
3. However It’s surprising my statistic gonna say “We are at very… very high odds to see an up day this Monday!”…
4. Europe policy/political development: Italy austerity plan passed, Berlusconi resigned, Mario Monti…
http://cyclestockmarketwinner.blogspot.com/2011/11/surprisingly-bull-odds-next-monday.html