THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS DOWN, HOLDING SHORT POSITION OVERNIGHT
The bottom line, lower low ahead but bulls no need to panic because bounce is on the way and so is the Thanksgiving.
A little bullish biased toward tomorrow for 2 reasons:
- SPY down 4 days, buy a close today and hold until the very first green day since the last 2,000 trading days, you had 82% chances. Not necessarily tomorrow though because if you sell at tomorrow close, you got only 60% chance.
- The day after a Major Distribution Day had 63% chances to close in green.
Decision time for Cobra Impulse System tomorrow:
- Break above today’s high and close in green, it’s a long which had 81% winning rate since the last 2,000 trading days.
- Break below today’s low and close in red, it’s a short which had 70% winning rate since the last 2,000 trading days.
- Again, I know it’s difficult to trade on CIS right now, I’ll sure find time to fix this stupid confirmation things but for now the first priority is to move to the new server, hopefully this Thanksgiving. Then I need finish the back test on the Portfolio System and then apply the research achievements to CIS to eliminate the confirmation requirement, well, hopefully.
BPNYA down 8.94%, BPCOMPQ down 3.77%, BPOEX down 14.49%, BPNDX down 8.62%, BPSPX down 12.58%, BPINDU down 13.64%.
Chart BPSPX shows support just below:
uempel
Regarding the BPSPX, is it significant that the change is double digits? Does a higher number imply greater velocity? The current line down looks as straight as the one up, without any real pause before the final destination. Thanks.
Great question 99, I’m trying to answer it with momentum. So far BPSPX daily momentum is heading downwards, no sign of a turnaround.
99, check this too…
And this:
Thanks, uempel, for the charts. What a great analytical tool the BP is. It’s no wonder you chart it so often and so well. Thanks.
Christina’s World sure is a great picture… I love it.
Am expecting a reversal…http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2011/11/expect-reversal-up-tommorrow.html
Instigator, this is Cobra’s blog, this is meeting point. Why don’t you join in here, post your comment here? Most of us come here to check Cobra’s charts, to exchange our thoughts. We don’t want to get lured away to other blogs just to read one single comment…
No problem uempel, Michael G, etc. I input open, high, low, close and volume for daily TNA which get plugged into a bunch of formulas. Five of them lit up suggesting that TNA will reverse and go up for a few days. The formulas that lit up included:
1. Wilder R (2) EQUATION UTILIZED & <0 BUY TNA SINCE REVERSAL (ONLY)2. 14 DAY MINIMAL LOW BUY TNA SINCE A REVERSAL WILL OCCUR 3. OPENS BELOW PROJECTED DeMark LOW BY GAPPING DOWN & HITTING THE NEW LOW AFTER PRIOR DAY CLOSE<OPEN & RECENT DOWNTREND BUY TNA SINCE A REVERSAL WILL OCCUR 4. HIGH (PRIOR CLOSE-LOW)/ RANGE WITH HIGH VOLUME BUY TNA SINCE REVERSAL WILL OCCUR5. HA OPENS ABOVE PROJECTED DeMark HA HIGH AFTER PRIOR DAY HA CLOSE< HA OPEN & RECENT FALL IN HA RANGE BUY TNA SINCE A REVERSAL OR RESUMPTION OF UPTREND AFTER PULLBACK. There were no SELL TNA Signals EOD.
SPX
While a bounce at the mid-channel line around 1160 looks possible, prices may cut straight through. Yeah, it’s Thanksgiving but much of Europe is a turkey overstuffed with marked-to-unicorn debt. Good luck swallowing that.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_6455.html
Problem is, the VIX was really low today and didn’t make a higher high as the S&P made a lower low. That’s bullish (normally).
I agree. VIX acts strange those days.
Cobra, if you have ideas on VIX pattern, pass it to me, I could continue my VIX calculation. I just did it last weekend. seems not many positive result.
60% still is positive.
I’m not sure why u dislike the confirmation stuff for CIS, it seems pretty straight forward to me.
because you have to wait for the close before knowing whether the buy/sell is confirmed which sometimes is too late, so some experiences are required to follow the CIS.