GOOG and the Coming ER Season

Someone asked about GOOG, since it’s very popular and we just moved to this home so I kind want to impress you guys, so I’d like to provide a little info here, thanks to Bespoke of course. Such a Q&A session is not guaranteed, so don’t hope more… Smile

No doubt GOOG will beat. I generally don’t doubt above 80% beat rate. By the way, the expectation is extremely low for the coming ER season, so I won’t be surprised to see yet another record high beat rate for all the stocks. It’s a game, period.
But the usual trade is to sell open. The average % chances no matter gap up or down WERE –1%+.
ChiOsc too high, if it keeps going up till ER which is 10/13 AH, then better take some profits as nothing on Earth can go against the gravity forever. We Martians, by the way, don’t have such a problem, our stock market never stops rising…

As you know when I say the expectation is extremely low for the coming ER season, I should, as always, have some evidences. Well, you guess it right, here’s the data, also thanks to Bespoke. This is also the reason I’m not extremely bearish now because I’m afraid the record beating game shall start pretty soon…

14 Comments

Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 9:58 pm

bravo !

Cobra on October 11, 2011 at 10:01 pm

I’ve updated a little more, please check again.
- seagal on October 13, 2011 at 12:29 pm
  
  Where is your update? How do you feel GOOG today?
  - Cobra on October 13, 2011 at 12:32 pm
    
    I meant after he said thanks, I updated the post. I didn’t mean I update today.
    
    GOOG is very strong right now, but better not to bet ER, my experiences WERE stocks rise huge before ER usually will be sold off after ER.

Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:07 pm

Thank you again.
Actually, current pattern is exactly similar with last ER patter.
As Wall Street darling, GOOG almost beats the ER every times.
The reason as you said, the estimate is too low.
I did not bet its ER, but GOOG maybe support market on Friday.
I think Wed market another small green bar, Thu market pull back, Fri turn north with GOOG “excellent” ER.
Yes, this is the game, YMYD, LOL .

Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:11 pm

Cobra u are JUST TOO NICEEE!!!!!!!!

Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:14 pm

Got your newly updates.
One more thing, I think QQQ maybe will load up more GOOG to replace AAPL.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=QQQ+Holdings (Holdings as of Aug 31, 2011)
AAPL – 14.39% ; GOOG – 5.53% .
Market Makers needs new blood for bulls.

Cobra on October 11, 2011 at 11:32 pm

Thanks, that’s nice for goog.

Anonymous on October 12, 2011 at 4:09 am

THX a lot!!!

RK on October 12, 2011 at 8:42 am

I posted this couple of days back in the forum.

GOOG has always done well in october earnings. Check the stats below. Seven years in a row…

http://www.thomsoninvestortools.com/component/firm/aol/view.asp?uid=stocks/seasonality&country=US&tier=default&symbol=goog

Cobra on October 12, 2011 at 9:10 am

Thanks, that’s good info.

Chris Guirguis on October 13, 2011 at 12:00 am

Cobra, how high do you see Google running up after earnings? You think it could rival that almost 100 point move after their last earnings?

Cobra on October 13, 2011 at 12:15 am

I don’t know.
- RK on October 13, 2011 at 9:17 am
  
  What i generally noticed in stocks like GOOG is, generally have a minimum of 10% upside move on earnings while the downside is limited to 5-6%.
  
  I like to play GOOG earnings…but only caveat i see is the deal with Motorola..

Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 9:58 pm

bravo !
- Cobra on October 11, 2011 at 10:01 pm
  
  I’ve updated a little more, please check again.
  - seagal on October 13, 2011 at 12:29 pm
    
    Where is your update? How do you feel GOOG today?
    - Cobra on October 13, 2011 at 12:32 pm
      
      I meant after he said thanks, I updated the post. I didn’t mean I update today.
      
      GOOG is very strong right now, but better not to bet ER, my experiences WERE stocks rise huge before ER usually will be sold off after ER.
Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:07 pm

Thank you again.
Actually, current pattern is exactly similar with last ER patter.
As Wall Street darling, GOOG almost beats the ER every times.
The reason as you said, the estimate is too low.
I did not bet its ER, but GOOG maybe support market on Friday.
I think Wed market another small green bar, Thu market pull back, Fri turn north with GOOG “excellent” ER.
Yes, this is the game, YMYD, LOL .
Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:11 pm

Cobra u are JUST TOO NICEEE!!!!!!!!
Anonymous on October 11, 2011 at 10:14 pm

Got your newly updates.
One more thing, I think QQQ maybe will load up more GOOG to replace AAPL.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=QQQ+Holdings (Holdings as of Aug 31, 2011)
AAPL – 14.39% ; GOOG – 5.53% .
Market Makers needs new blood for bulls.
- Cobra on October 11, 2011 at 11:32 pm
  
  Thanks, that’s nice for goog.
Anonymous on October 12, 2011 at 4:09 am

THX a lot!!!
RK on October 12, 2011 at 8:42 am

I posted this couple of days back in the forum.

GOOG has always done well in october earnings. Check the stats below. Seven years in a row…

http://www.thomsoninvestortools.com/component/firm/aol/view.asp?uid=stocks/seasonality&country=US&tier=default&symbol=goog
- Cobra on October 12, 2011 at 9:10 am
  
  Thanks, that’s good info.
Chris Guirguis on October 13, 2011 at 12:00 am

Cobra, how high do you see Google running up after earnings? You think it could rival that almost 100 point move after their last earnings?
- Cobra on October 13, 2011 at 12:15 am
  
  I don’t know.
  - RK on October 13, 2011 at 9:17 am
    
    What i generally noticed in stocks like GOOG is, generally have a minimum of 10% upside move on earnings while the downside is limited to 5-6%.
    
    I like to play GOOG earnings…but only caveat i see is the deal with Motorola..

14 Comments

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