This is a special addition as SSEC was down 6%+ last night.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
- Short-term, this bear may have legs.
- Long-term, the pullback is a buy, just be prepared the pullback could be huge.
- Lower low ahead but 88% chances Monday will be up.
THE SHORT-TERM:
The pullback exceeded the mini target highlighted on the chart which means this bear may have legs.
THE BIG PICTURE:
However, on the weekly chart, this could be the very first meaningful pullback after being up a lot (if indeed this bear has legs of course), so most likely it would be bought eventually. See chart below for example: Usually after being up a lot, the very first test of the MA31 blue curve would be bought (green arrows). Just beware though, testing MA31 this time means the pullback would be huge. I’m not saying we’re to test the MA31 this time. We may or may not, just be prepared for the worst if you plan to buy dip.
THE STATISTICS:
Highlighted in the chart below are all the past cases since the year 2000 when SSEC down 6%+ in a single day. Clearly we can see, about 88% chances Monday would be up, however it also means lower low ahead which is especially useful if Monday doesn’t make lower low (so we know likely we can sell the bounce). The chart is very large, you may need click twice to see the original size.
CHINESE TRANSLATION
上证跌了6%+，因此我觉得有必要特别谈一下。
THE BOTTOM LINE:
- 短期，熊熊多半还有一腿。
- 长期，这个回调多半是买的机会，只是要有回调幅度可能很大的心理准备。
- 周五的low多半不是THE low，不过有88%的机会周一涨。
THE SHORT-TERM:
回调超过了mini target（下图中高亮部分），因此熊熊可能还有一腿。
THE BIG PICTURE:
Weekly图看，这是涨了很多以后的第一次像样点的回调（如果真的如前面所说，熊熊还有一腿的话），因此多半回调最终是会被买起的。见下图的例子：涨了很多后第一次测试MA31蓝色曲线都被买起了（绿色箭头）。只是要注意，如果这一次回调真的去测试MA31的话，那就意味着回调的幅度很惊人，要小心。我不是说回调一定会去测试MA31哈，可能会也可能不会，我只是说要有回调幅度很大的心理准备。
THE STATISTICS:
下图红色高亮的部分是自2000年以来所有SSEC一天里跌6%+的情况。可以看到，有88%的机会周一会涨，不过，也意味着周五大跌6%+的那个low不是THE low，至少还有一个lower low。这个结论意味着，如果周一没有新低，直接反弹的话，这个反弹多半最终回失败（不一定周一就失败哈）。图很大，需要点击两次看原图大小。
Thank You.