No idea up or down the next Monday. However, if you have a strong heart (or good stomach? I usually get stomachache when panic) or good at pretending dead for awhile, here are 2 setups with very good profit factor:

  • SPY closed below its BB bottom for 3 days in a row, buy at close, HOLD until the very first day SPY closes above its BB bottom, you have 74% chances to make money. The profit factor is 4.5 which is very good.

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  • Whenever you see (this week’s) high to (last week’s) low down gap, you buy on weekly bar close, the next week you have 60% chances to make money. The good part is the profit factor which is 13.2, which is super good. The problem is the sample size is only 5, too small. And yes, weekly gap does get filled every time but sometimes it’d take awhile if this is year 2008 once more.

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Whenever SPY down 3 days in a row, you buy at close, HOLD until the very first day SPY closes in green, you have 74% chances to make money. The profit factor is 1.6 which is not good enough for the risk.

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Routine statistics about SPY down 2 weeks in a row.

  • The next week has 94% chances to rebound to $194.02.
  • The next week has 87% chances to rebound to $195.52.
  • The next week has 77% chances to rebound to $196.74.

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Routine statistics about SPY down 3 days in a row (this is about the next Monday, not HOLD until blah blah).

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