|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH
See 08/20 Market Recap and 08/24 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: UP TOMORROW, BUT DOWN THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK?
No hard evidences today, but 2 speculations, for fun only.
I said yesterday, whether the 08/25 bullish reversal bar means a bottom, needs a follow-through. Too bad, there’s no follow-though today. So does this mean that 08/25 is not a bottom? The chart below shows the most recent bottom pattern: A bullish reversal bar followed by Dark Cloud Cover all had led to a huge up bar the next bar which for now is tomorrow. The question is whether the 4th time will be different? Anyway, at least whether the market has bottomed, we have to see tomorrow, agree?
In 08/20 Market Recap, I said if red week this week, then be careful about the very first 4 consecutive down weeks this year, in another word, if red this week, then probably red the next next week. Looks to me now, unless a miracle happens tomorrow otherwise this week will likely end in red.
6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch can be seen as an insurance for a red next week, because it seems the last week of every month since Aug 2009 were more likely bearish (Stockcharts counts the next week as the last trading week in August not the first trading week in September).
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| TREND | DTMFS | COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. | |
| QQQQ | DOWN | ||
| IWM | DOWN | ||
| CHINA | UP | Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming? | |
| EMERGING | DOWN | 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. | |
| EUROPEAN | DOWN | ||
| CANADA | UP | SELL | |
| BOND | UP | 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200). | |
| EURO | DOWN | ||
| GOLD | UP | BUY | |
| GDX | UP | BUY | 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. |
| OIL | DOWN | ||
| ENERGY | DOWN | ||
| FINANCIALS | DOWN | 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? | |
| REITS | DOWN | 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful. | |
| MATERIALS | DOWN |
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.