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SHORT-TERM: BEARISH ENGULFING WAS BULLISH FOR THE NEXT DAY, BEARISH A WEEK LATER
I see Bearish Engulfing bar all over the place (see ETFs table below), which means bearish reversal 79% of the time. However the back test since 2003 (no obvious edges if test starts from 1991) shows a very very bullish tomorrow which had 85% chances of being a green day and the intermediate-term (from 2 to 4 weeks) was also very very bullish. So the market action today at most argues for a short-term pullback while the intermediate-term still remains bullish.
The chart below from another angle interprets the bar formed today: Open high forming higher high then close lower, so it’s a bearish reversal day again, which according to the chart below, mostly led to a pullback of some kind, even though the effect recently was not as good as before. So again, we may see more short-term pullbacks, although the pullback could start after tomorrow’s rebound according to the back test about the Bearish Engulfing bar showing above.
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, just to remind you about the the principle of the NYMO Sell setup mentioned in the table above, which if confirmed tomorrow, had 60%+ chances of catching a top of some kind.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY
See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH
See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 10/15 L | *Bearish Engulfing. |
| NDX Weekly | UP | %B too high with negative divergence. NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. NDX:SPX too high. Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high). |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | 07/15 L | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ChiOsc is too high with 2 hollow red bars. | |
| EEM Weekly | UP | EEM:SPX too high. |
| XIU.TO | 08/31 L | TOADV MA(10) too high. *Bearish Engulfing and channel overshoot. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ChiOsc is too low. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | *Bearish Engulfing. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 10/29 L | *Bearish Engulfing. |
| GDX Weekly | UP | BPGDM too high, pullback? |
| USO | *WTIC rejected by resistance. *Bearish Engulfing. |
|
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | *Dark Cloud Cover, well, sort of. |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74. |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 11/02 L | *Bearish Engulfing. |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.