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SHORT-TERM: THE TOP COULD BE IN
Although the market closed in green eventually, but my guess is we may see more pullbacks ahead. Except the 83% bear winning rate mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, chart pattern wise, it looks like a typical 1-2-3 trend change pattern, so there’re good chances that a short-term top was in. As for the pullback target, if indeed, a general pattern should be around the November highs at least.
Indicator At Extremes from Sentimentrader, just an update, the spread now at the April highs if not above.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN COULD HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, NEED THE 2ND SIGNAL TO CONFIRM THOUGH
I know as soon as you see the title “Hindenburg Omen”, your first reflection is because everyone is “talking about the omen so it won’t work”. In fact even before it’s confirmed to be triggered, someone in my forum has already stated so (Yeah, whenever I say something I always have proof, LOL). Anyway, my task is to tell you there’s something here and there, that’s it. Charts below are all the recent cases when Hindenburg Omen was triggered. And personally I don’t think the August Omen was a failure because it’s not a short-term signal so whether it works or not we still have to wait and see.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK
See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | *12/14 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc too low. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.