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SHORT-TERM: DAILY CHART DOESN’T LOOK GOOD BUT SO FAR NO LOWER LOW YET
Three points for your attention:
- The daily chart looks ugly, which according to my “N vs N rule”, bears scored one more, so the uptrend is definitely weakening. However, so far no lower low yet, therefore still no 1-2-3 trend change (see SPY 60 min chart next) as I’ve been blah blah, so strictly speaking, it’s now too early to declare a bear victory yet.
- The down momentum shown on Friday was just too strong that bulls even had no chance to establish a Bear Flag at least (you ever see a flag pointing downside?), so if the invincible POMO hasn’t changed the inertia commonly existing on the planet Earth yet then there should be one more leg down at least to test the 01/20 lows.
- VIX rose more than 18% on Friday, since year 1999, this’d mean a rebound the next Monday or Tuesday, most likely Tuesday as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in February, Dow and SPX up 7 of last 8.
Lastly, just a reminder, 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB), it’s a potential buy setup. So, by the way, again, although bears do see some hopes but whether the hope could eventually turn into a reality is still hard to say.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN
Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased because of the 2 charts below:
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals, weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). Well, such a big spread was nothing in 90s by the way, so don’t read into it too much.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, SPX Bullish Percent Index is till way too high.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | *01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | BPNDX is way too overbought. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | DOWN | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | DOWN | |
| EEM | *ChiOsc is little too low. | |
| EEM Weekly | *DOWN | |
| XIU.TO | 01/06 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling? | |
| TLT Weekly | ? | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | DOWN | *STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times. |
| GDX | 12/17 S | |
| GDX Weekly | DOWN | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | *? | *The rebound is strong, so not sure about downtrend anymore. |
| XLE | 01/25 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 01/19 S | |
| XLB Weekly | DOWN | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.