03/15/2011 Market Recap: Another Dent!

SHORT-TERM: THE LOW MAY BE IN BUT EVEN SO WE COULD SEE SOME BACK AND FORTH FILLINGS AS PER PAST PATTERNS

I think you might all have guessed what I’m about to say today. Yes, I’m so-o-o-o-o-o-o-o (insert 100 “o” here) disappointed in bears. Another big down day met by aggressive dip buyers, it looks like that really really, nothing, nothing at all, could ever bring down this market. So no argue, if the past pattern, at least since March 2009, still works then the daily reversal bar formed today should be very bullish, so a bottom of some kind could be in. However, the day’s last 60 min bar is Shooting Star again which is a bearish formation while the reversal today is way too sharp and generally it means some back and forth fillings thereafter and sometimes even today’s low could be retested, so bears are not over yet. Trading wise, as now both short-term and intermediate-term are still in downtrend, so my strategy is till to sell bounces. A huge up day tomorrow then short-term I’ll be on the bull side.

Now have a look at all the evidences for “a bottom of some kind could be in”. Again, I have no ability to predict the future, all I can tell are the past similar patterns. As for whether the pattern works now or not, I don’t know and don’t care either as per my trading model. I’ve been very careful about my wordings although sometimes I may appear absolutely sure, that’s of course not true, in fact, as always, I’m clueless. What I’m doing here is just to present info, while whether those info is useful or not and how to use it, I don’t care either as I’m trying to be objective.

• VIX body completely out of BB top, looks like a bottom at least recently.

• The chart below highlighted in blue are all the past bottom signals that SPY ST Model issued. Not always absolutely a bottom, but should be close enough. And today, we get one.

• SPY hollow red bar, QQQQ hollow red bar, I’ve mentioned those two charts yesterday, and today we got a double reversal bar which if the past pattern still works, should be bullish.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.