03/18/2011 Market Recap: Lower Low Ahead?

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER LOW AHEAD

Four cents:

1. Expect a lower low ahead, the 03/15 low might not be the final low.
2. Just a wild guess, the rebound could over around 03/21.
3. Concept only, the pullback price target could be the November 2010 highs and last until the beginning of April. For the intermediate-term, I still expect that 02/18 highs will be revisited.
4. The trading strategy is till to sell bounce.

Why lower low ahead?

• As mentioned in 03/16 Market Recap, a Visible Positive Divergence is needed. A rebound those days is just the very first step toward “Visible”.

• As mentioned in 03/16 Market Recap, 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days means rebound then resume the downtrend. Now the rebound has fulfilled, let’s see whether it will resume on the downside as per the past pattern.

• The last week is unfortunately a red  OE week, the chart below shows all the recent red OE weeks which as far as I can see, that 13 out of 16 (81%) cases, either a red the next week or at least a lower low the next week.

• VIX rose 30%+ in 2 days from 03/14 to 03/15, the statistics below are from Bespoke and Schaeffer, both show that the next and the next next week are not very bull friendly. In addition, I’ve attached all the cases since 1990 below. Clearly you can see that the day when VIX rose 30% was mostly not the low, so the safest trade for bear should be to sell bounce then cover near 03/15 low.

Since as mentioned above chances for a lower low are higher so it’s reasonable to guess that the rebound could be over soon. Then why 03/21? Because Full Moon (see table above), Solar Term Date (see table above), Gann Day and pivot date statistics since year 2000 are all pointing to the time window from 03/16 to 03/22 which should most likely be a turning point.

As for the pullback time and target, just a wild guess, no solid evidences, so the purpose is to give you some concept in advance.

Generally the pullback target is around the previous high which for our current case is the November highs.

As for the time target, since there’re lots of cycle due date at the beginning of the April so it could be a very important turning point which right now seems a cycle low.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.