So far bulls had no 2 consecutive up days so I’ll need see a decent follow though the next Monday to be convinced that bears are over. A big up on Monday probably means bears are over, because a huge reversal of reversal is rare (we can have lots of small reversal of reversal of reversal… but not lots of 50 points of reversal of reversal) therefore I won’t hope another huge reversal down the next Tuesday and Wednesday should Monday is up. Anyway, from the statistics I’m about to present, Monday is a little more likely down than up.

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I made a mistake in the intraday update: There’s no breadth data before June 1, 2005 and this is why lots of cases appeared in year 2003 which looked very wrong. So testing all breadth data after June 1, 2005 does show that up huge on poor breadth matters as they all happened in bear market or near the major top.

  • SPY up 1.8%+ but NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume ratio is less than  2.5, the next day SPY down 7 of 8. The profit factor is 13 which is huge.

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  • SPY up 1.9%+ but NYSE Advancing Issues to NYSE Declining Issues ratio is less than 2, the next day SPY down 8 of 12. The profit factor is 2.1 which is not bad.

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VIX down 18% in a single day, short SPY at today’s close, HOLD until the day VIX is up less than 18%, you have 62% chances to make money. The profit factor is 0.9 which is not good.

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Routine statistics about SPY up 3 weeks. The next week SPY has 79% chances to make a higher high, so more up ahead.

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Routine statistics about SPY up 1 day.

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