SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE OVERBOUGHT
Three cents:
- A little bit overbought now, so a pullback is just a matter of time.
- Most likely today’s high is not the high.
- Pullback is buy, especially if no higher high tomorrow, the market pullbacks right at the open.
I think you all know why I think a pullback is just a matter of time because T2122 and NYMO, I’ve been blah blah recently, are overbought again.
Why isn’t today’s high the high? Because NYHGH (Number of NYSE Stocks at New 52-Week Highs) closed above 450 today. The chart below shows all the NYHGH history when it closed above 450. Only 1 out of 28 chances today’s high is the high while the rest 27 cases, NYHGH had to form a negative divergence before a top of some kind was in. So the conclusion is, more up ahead, especially if no higher high tomorrow, the market pullbacks right away, then knowing a higher high ahead could be very profitable in this case.
As for tomorrow Non Farm Payroll day, the cliches are open high close low or open low close high. The statistics below are from Bespoke.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY
See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH JULY
See 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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