SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH AHEAD BUT EXPECT PULLBACK NO LATER THAN THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

Four cents:

  1. Today’s high is not the high.
  2. Expect pullback as early as tomorrow, no later than the day after tomorrow.
  3. If no higher high tomorrow, the market pullback at open, then the pullback is buyable. If tomorrow higher high first then pullback, then more likely such a pullback still is buy, just need see signals to confirm, so in this case we’ll have to wait and see.
  4. Another green day tomorrow, especially if it’s a narrow range day, then better bulls take some profit.

Begin with why “expect pullback as early as tomorrow, no later than the day after tomorrow”: TICK MA(3) is way too high, with no exception, SPX closed below today’s close no later than the day after tomorrow. This chart is also why I said if green day again tomorrow, then better take some profits.

TICKMA3

Now let’s see why expect higher high ahead:

Rarely, if never, was Major Accumulation Day exactly the market top. This actually is the law of inertia.

MADHHGuaranteed

2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days used to be a very powerful intermediate-term buy signal. It didn’t work as well as it’s used to be recently, but still it’s a good short-term up signal.

2MADWithin5Days

INDU broke above 09/27 highs ahead of SPX, so expect SPX would follow soon.

INDULeads

Non-Stop model gave buy signal today, so tomorrow should close short open long. Click Non-Stop and check the last half part of the post, you’ll see never was a Non-Stop buy signal given at exactly the market top. SPY was at least up for a few days thereafter and in fact, 73% chances such an uptrend could last more than 10 calendar days. So the buy signal give by Non-Stop also imply at least the short-term will be up for a few more days.

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term UP 4 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH AHEAD BUT EXPECT PULLBACK NO LATER THAN THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

四点说明：

  1. 会有higher high，就是说今天的high多半不是the high。
  2. 最快明天，最迟后天会有pullback。
  3. 假如明天没有先higher high就pullback的话，这个pullback比较确定是buy，假如明天先higher high再pullback的话，基本上这个pullback也是buy，不过需要看当时信号的情况。
  4. 明天又收绿的话，特别如果是小棒棒，那么牛牛最好套利。

先看最迟明天，最快后天会有pullback的证据：TICK MA(3)太高了，最迟后天会close在今天的close以下，没有例外。这也是我为什么说，明天如果收绿的话，最好套利的理由。

TICKMA3

下面看看还有的涨的理由：

鲜有Major Accumulation Day是exactly market top的。这个其实就是惯性定律啦。

MADHHGuaranteed

2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days，这在过去是个非常强大的中期买信号，最近两次虽然工作的不好，但是至少短期还是涨了几天的。

2MADWithin5Days

INDU今天break above 09/27的high了，SPX应该会follow。

INDULeads

Non-Stop model今天出了买信号，明天应该close short open long。点击Non-Stop，在文章的最后可以看到Non-Stop的买信号从来么有买在exactly top的情况，后面总是要涨个几天，有73%的机会是会涨10个calendar day以上，所以这个model的买信号，至少也是短期看涨的信号。

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term UP 4 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.