SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE HIGHER HIGH THEN PULLBACK, JUST A SPECULATION, NOT SURE

I see nothing special worth blah blah today, so let me, based on all the evidences I’ve got so far, make a little guess about what’s the next:

  • As mentioned in 10/12 Market Outlook, a RSI negative divergence is needed before any meaningful pullback, so my guess is SPY will revisit the 10/12 highs first
  • Statistically, gap down, lower low after 10:00am ET then intraday reverses up, most likely the morning low will be revisited in the next couple of days, so my guess is after revisiting the 10/12 highs, SPY will pullback to test today’s low.

SPYEvilPlan

Then, why couldn’t it be going low first higher later? Possibly, but considering the similarity showing in the chart below, I’d prefer high first lower later. Of course, you can always argue since the 3rd time is the charm so this time we’ll see lower price first. Sure, I cannot say you’re wrong. As long as we all remember that, the bottom line, it’s very rare such a strong push up is just one legged therefore a pullback, if any, is buy. Hence if we see low first, since that RSI is still missing negative divergence therefore we’d have one more assurance for buying the dip, right? Then, what if there’s no negative divergence at all this time? Well, if signals have no exceptions at all in the stock market then everybody would be rich. The reality is, as we all know, there’re always some exceptions, so the only thing we can do is always to bet on the side that statistically has higher odds, instead of, say, I know this signal works 90% of the time, but hey, I feel, this time would be different. Well, you simply cannot play this game like that in the long run although for a few times you might be lucky.

SPY

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE HIGHER HIGH THEN PULLBACK, JUST A SPECULATION, NOT SURE

今天没看到什么值得大吹特吹的东东，所以只能根据已有的证据猜测一下下面的走法。见下图：

  • 10/12 Market Outlook里提到了要有RSI negative divergence先，才可能有真正意义的回调，所以我猜明天SPY会先去测试10/12的high。
  • Gap down，lower low after 10:00am ET，然后盘中反转，这种情况，统计上绝大多数情况两天内会重新测试该low，所以我猜去过10/12的high后，会掉下来。

SPYEvilPlan

那么，为什么不是先掉下来，再去high呢？可能啊，不过考虑到跟过去两次的相似性，所以我猜先high再low，当然你要说第三次不一样，所以这次先low后high，这个我也没法说你不对，呵呵。反正目前的交易策略很清楚，这么强的上涨，是不可能只有一条腿的，所以pullback如果有的话，是buy。也所以，如果先low的话，因为有着RSI那个missing negative divergence在那呢，所以可能先low的话buy起来更加有底些。什么？要是这次就是没有negative divergence呢？这，这，这，我就没法子了，股市里要永远没有例外，人人都发财了不是？问题是，现实没有那么简单，因此我们只能总是bet在高点几率的那头，而不是说，这个，有90%的机率要涨，但这次，我感觉不一样，所以我要做空。呵呵，长期来讲，大概不能这么玩，尽管可能有几次你运气好。

SPY

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.