SHORT-TERM MODEL HAS NO IDEA BOUT THE TREND, HOLDING LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT
The bottom line, although charts always tell 2 side stories but I’m more inclined to believe a top of some kind is close if not already in. I’ll as usual, present my witnesses tonight, so stay tuned.
Tomorrow seasonality is not very bull friendly as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, October expiration day, Dow down 5 straight and 6 of last 7. Also the chart below shows that since the Aug lows, the Friday had 50% chances to close in red, definitely a random number but I just want to imply that Friday is not as bullish as that of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday which all had above 70% chances to close in green. Bears only get some chances on Thursday and Friday and too bad, they wasted the Bearish Thursday today.
ＴＨＸ！！！
Dow down 5 straight on expiration? 6 out of 7? This market is roulette so the odds say up tomorrow. Bet black.
Nice consolidation right under resistance (very important resistance!). Looks like something that could easily go either way (big breakout higher, or quick trip back down to the bottom of the 11 week old range).
A market looking for a catalyst?
HRev,
I think it was you I discussed it with a few months back, the fact that at the time we were in an X wave.
I think the Z wave has started here in October.
I’d have to agree that there is a fairly high probability that an IT bottom has been put in. For the benefit of others here, I’m going to quote your count as you related it back in the beginning of Sept.
“…I count that structure as W x(January 2010 top to the July 2010 low) Y x (February 2011 top to August lows) and had us in the final Z wave now which I suspect could be a grinder that will last into next year. This count creates some fantastic fibonacci time and price relationships between the W and Y waves as well as the X waves and shows some alternation in forms of the X waves as well.”
Of course, as we all know now all too well, the bottom still wasn’t in at that time (and still might not be . . .), but even though your shorter term count may have varied, I can see how the longer term would not. That having been said, my question has to do with those Fibonacci relationships. How are they looking? I had replied that I thought that I saw what you were referring to and that it looked like Z might have a target just below the April highs leaving the charts with an IT lower high. Is that how you see your Z wave projections in terms of price? And your timeline? How’s that looking? Can guests post charts?
yes indeed, I had a rough September as I thought the X was over in August! I was impatient.
The fibo’s aren’t nearly as clean now in price or time as they would have been with an august low, that said, this is also how fibo shows up in nature. too many people believe that fibo doesn’t work because market prices don’t turn when you mark all your fibs from absolute highs to lows but when you do that you totally miss how it unfolds in the real world as opposed to the mathematical theory, (see Constance Brown, Fibonacci Analysis) that the count had such a clean fibo relationship and has now deviated from that in what I suspect is the last leg of the bull now makes sense from this perspective. When the Z wave is over I would be marking that as the end of wave (b) with the expectation that wave (c) will put us sub 950 at some point in 2013. As of right now my time targets for wave (c) are too broad to even mention, certainly nothing to trade off of, the other issue is that using various cycles I keep getting dates clustered around 2016 and 2017 so I’m not sure quite yet how to square all that, plus it’s a lifetime away for a trader.
to answer your question, that is also how I see the Z playing out, with a lower high. I have an upside target on the Z now of 1250-1270 but due to lack of certainty of where the shorter term labels are right now I don’t have a great time target just yet. I have to admit lately I’m more focused on a lot of individual names as thats what I started getting long in September rather than the overall market, evident from my thoughts that the Z will be a “grinder” and therefore individual stock picking comes into play. People have called it a stock pickers market since 09 but that’s not really true from where I’m sitting, pretty much everything was going up during the up-legs since March 09 sans financials, breadth is not so clear now…. I own a number of utilities which have done ok but there was a great deal of stocks that showed some strong positive divergence at the October lows and so I’m in quite a few names with and running pretty tight stops on everything as I’m not 100% confident October was all she wrote, I’ve also had a successful operation with Ford just using some basic monthly charts that identified classic support just below $10 where I purchased several thousand shares over a handful of weeks. That’s worked out quite well thus far and so I continue to adjust stops on the upward path accordingly. I’m also observing some nice waves in the dollar and in copper.
I”m a bit pressed for time this morning and can’t really post much during the day, I use the name Ninja Trader in the intraday watering when I have some time. I’ll try to put some charts up in the next few weeks, think it will be a great end of the year for trading ops. I don’t know how to put the charts up on here but how hard could it be.
good luck High Rev!
BPNYA -1.26%, BPCOMPQ -0.57%, BPOEX +1.45%, BPSPX -0.34%, BPNDX and BPINDU flat. As to the charts: it looks as though BPs have made a short term top:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BPNYA,$BPCOMPQ,$BPOEX,$BPNDX,$BPSPX,$BPINDU,$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA,$BPHEAL,$BPINFO,$BPINDY,$BPMATE,$BPTELE,$BPUTIL
SP500 Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/sp500-fibo_20.html
DJI Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/dji-fibo.html
hello gerald. I went to your website. its hard to read. can you tell me what you apple chart was telling you yesterday? thanks !
I’m just guessing here, but based on the fact that I think he had a down red arrow painted on every single one of the charts, I’m going to go with they were telling him downside ahead
you too funny Yes ! thanks ! how about the astrological factors????//
beats me, I only looked at the arrows! 🙂
gerald is a man of few words. 🙂
AAPL is a short…
Thanks!
If not go HH, then go LL. 😀
SP500 Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/sp500-time-ratio_20.html
hey cobra do you have premium BESTOKE and if yes, how do yo like it ? Is it worht the 1400 / per year ?
That’s Premium Plus, I don’t know.
Bespoke Premium only around $40 a month. I think their service a good comparing with other services that far above 40 a month but offer not as much as Bespoke, their price may be fair, although I think $40 to me is expensive :-).
Premium Plus, means you can access their database, I don’t know why you need that database? You trade purely on chart or on fundamentals? Judging by you’re here, you’d be pretty much TA guys, so why you need the database, that’s the question you should ask yourself.
Graciela, too much information/data does not necessarily improve trading results, most likely it will diminish performance. It’s more important A) to find your own set of indicators and B) to know exactly when to trade and when not to trade. Especially the latter – to know when not to trade – is essential for making money. Second half of October 2011 is a non-trading environment for all but the most astute traders.
By the way, did you notice that Goldman made a loss in Q3 – do you believe Goldman didn’t have the data? Or Paulson & Co, down 30% this year? Or George Soros – he quit the business.
The guys at bespoke know how tough it is to make continous trading profits. It’s much easier to collect data and arrange it nicely and sell it to the world.
Graciella, if you want to make money trading: invest at least 20 hours a week, pick up information from all availbable sources (most of it is free, you’ll have to buy some books) and if you want to invest money for knowledge: go to training to improve your trading.
thanks a lot for your insights . much appreciated
Great! I hope for red tomorrow.
European bond market is slowly deteriorating again. New trend of higher highs emerging again after late July intervention.
Portugal, Spain, Italy made higher highs today. Italy is closing in on all-time high, only about 20 basis points away. All this despite the EFSF (version 1) being ratified by all EU parliaments recently.
Most important of all though is France & Belgium action. Their spreads to Germany are increasing even further. Belgium/France bailout of Dexia is causing a loss of confidence in their bonds. Right now Germany & France think they face a classic prisoner’s dilemma, but the reality is their situations are unequal (as shown by their respective bond action), and that will eventually force Germany to make a decision. Germany either decides to go all-in on the EFSF and go down with the rest eventually, or they decide to pull the plug on the EU experiment.
Here is what keeps Germany and EU politicians up at night (charts). It is the beginning of Belgium and France breaking down. This is how Greece started 2 years ago, and the rest of the PIGS followed suit a year later.
Why does it matter? Cause the same will eventually happen to Germany if they agree to up the EFSF. Even if they do raise the EFSF to cover the PIGS, the deterioration of Belgium and France makes the EFSF bailout impossible from within the EU alone because the money necessary would crush government debt to GDP ratios and cause massive ratings downgrades (hypothetically US or China could still “help” kick the can down the road).
Thanks, a good comment.
NAS Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/nas-fibo_21.html