SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK SOON, HOPEFULLY SEE HIGHER HIGH FIRST THEN PULLBACK

No new stuff, reiterate what mentioned in 10/27 Market Outlook, higher high then pullback. See evil plan below:

  • Pay attention to the similarity among candlesticks, events and times between now and that of 07/21. I know similarity mostly does not work, if not always. I just think it’s worth mentioning here.
  • The most bull friendly event the next week is 11/02 FOMC announcement, which almost automatically implies that the market would at least rise till the day, plus the higher high rule after a Major Accumulation Day mentioned in 10/27 Market Outlook, so HOPEFULLY we could see a few more up, which, if indeed, I certainly don’t expect to be big, most likely small range days.

EvilPlan

Why do I still expect a pullback? Because all the “not ordinary” signals I mentioned in 10/27 Market Outlook are still valid, some become even more extreme.

  • The statistics below are from Bespoke, clearly the very first challenge on MA(200) won’t be that easy. Also I added two more charts below to explain why MA(200) is very important for bear market rebounds.

SPXCrossAboveMA200
SPXandMA200inBearMarket0
SPXandMA200inBearMarket1

  • T2112 > 47, statistically, the next and next next week won’t be pleasant. The sample size is too small though, so I won’t read too much into it.

T2112

  • VIX closed 20% below MA(10), there’re only 2 cases in the past 2,000 trading days.

VIX

  • T2122 becomes even more extreme.

T2122

  • NYMO still is extreme, and as I said before, such a signal cannot be argued.

NYMO

  • Rydex Traders (retailers) are very bullish, have accumulated large amount of bull funds while discarded most bear funds. This is just to follow the Rydex Bull Fund Asset Flow chart I mentioned before.

RydexFundFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 *BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 3 of 6 OVERBOUGHT
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK SOON, HOPEFULLY SEE HIGHER HIGH FIRST THEN PULLBACK

没有新内容，维持10/27 Market Outlook的判断，higher high，然后掉下来。

下面是evil plan。

  • 注意棒棒，事件以及时间上与07/21的相似性。当然，相似性不总是工作，我只是觉得值得一提。
  • 目前对牛牛最有利的是FOMC在11月2号，一般大盘都会涨到这一天，加上10/27 Market Outlook里提到Major Accumulation Day后基本都会有higher high，因此希望还能再涨几天吧。当然，我不认为会大涨特涨，多半是几个小棒棒而已。

EvilPlan

为什么会掉下来？10/27 Market Outlook提到的，绝非一般的信号，继续有效，有的还更加extreme了。

  • 下面的统计来自Bespoke，可以看到第一次挑战MA(200)一般不会那么顺利的。另外两幅图解释了MA(200)与熊市反弹的关系，应该有助于理解为什么那么多人盯着MA(200)。

SPXCrossAboveMA200
SPXandMA200inBearMarket0
SPXandMA200inBearMarket1

  • T2112大于47，从下面的统计看，下周，下下周都不好玩，当然sample太小，可能不足为凭。

T2112

  • VIX closed 20% below MA(10)，过去2,000个交易日里，只有两个例子。

VIX

  • T2122更加extreme了。

T2122

  • NYMO还是在extreme的范围内，我说过，这个信号是不能argue的。

NYMO

  • Rydex Traders （散户）很牛，买了很多牛fund，也少有人对熊fund有兴趣了。这个是follow up以前提到的Rydex Bull Fund Asset Flow，因为有同学还惦记着。

RydexFundFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 *BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 3 of 6 OVERBOUGHT
* = New update.