SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Nothing to say today. Seasonality is very bullish tomorrow, INDU up 8 of 9 since 2002, but chart pattern still argues on the downside, especially DAX. If you like me, who believes DAX leads, then today’s DAX daily, that almost closed at the low of the day, doesn’t look like a bottom. So the conclusion is a little bearish biased, just I have no guts to yell a red day tomorrow. It’s not because I’m superstitious about the seasonality, it’s because of the very thin holiday volume, no big guys would sell into this volume as we retailers simply could not hold it, so it’d be way too costly, no matter you want to be bear or bull.
SPY60min
DAXDaily

In yesterday’s report, I mentioned 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 Days could mean more down ahead, with or without a rebound first. The market chose no rebound today, so the chart below shows all the past cases that had no rebound the next day for your references. Looks like at least a lower low is very likely tomorrow.

2MDDin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没有啥好说的。明天seasonality很bullish，INDU up 8 of 9 since 2002，不过从chart pattern看，向下的机率比较大，特别是DAX，如果你也像我一样，相信DAX leads的话，DAX今天这根close low of day的红棒棒可不像是底的样子。所以结论是略微bearish biased，不过，我不敢断定明天会跌，不是迷信seasonality，而是假日volume，一般大户不会选择在这个时候sell，没有人接盘，因此成本太高了。 
SPY60min
DAXDaily

昨天的报告里提到了2 Major Distribution Day within 5 Days，意味着还有的跌，可能有也可能没有反弹。今天market选择了没有反弹，下面的图是过去所有2 Major Distribution Day with 5 Days以后没有反弹的例子，供参考吧，看起来明天还有个lower low的样子哈。

2MDDin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.