SHORT-TERM: PULLBACK MIGHT NOT OVER, BUT NO EVIDENCES YET THE TOP WAS IN

Three cents:

  1. Very short-term, in about several days time frame, the pullback might not be over yet. This doesn’t mean the top was in though because generally, bulls will at least try the 01/26 highs before a top pattern could possibly be confirmed.
  2. I see a little more than 50% chances, a week or two pullbacks (1 or 2 weekly red bars) ahead.
  3. I’ve changed the way to forecast the intermediate-term and long-term. Now they’re based on trading signals. Because per a few charts or statistics to blah blah the intermediate-term or long-term, is not practical, not only difficult to be right but also mostly difficult to find something to say, other than the trend is up or down (and repeat everyday), so I figured maybe to use the trading signals directly feels more “real”. Well, let’s try. This report has evolved a lot for the past 4 years, so it won’t just stop here. I’ll see if any better idea until everyone is happy.

The chart below explained why the pullback isn’t over and why chances are the top wasn’t in, at least not confirmed. The estimated rebound and pullback targets are also given.

EvilPlan

The statistics below, from the other angle, also supports the argument that there might be more pullbacks in the short-term.

ISEE

Then, why are chances a little above 50%, we’d see a week or two pullbacks?

The SPX weekly Doji itself means pullback or continue up 50 to 50 chances (so now bears have 50% chances at least). Considering the volume (small range bar such as Doji with volume surge, means distribution, while small range bar with decreased volume means consolidation, don’t confused with that) and the primary bear trend line, so my read is it’s a Doji bar with a little bearish bias.

SPXWeekly

In addition, there’re 2 reasons make me believe that weekly Doji has a little more bearish bias:

  • T2112 still is too high. A huge up the next week might fail eventually because nothing on this planet Earth are beyond the influences of gravity.

T2112

  • Just a reminder, don’t forget the OEX Open Interest Ratio.

OEXOpenInterestRatio

THE INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND IS UP

THE LONG-TERM ACCORDING TO OUR SIMPLE STRATEGY IS LONG SINCE JANUARY

  • According to the January Barometer, 80%+ chances, 2012 will end in positive territory.

 

 

Chinese Translation

SHORT-TERM: PULLBACK MIGHT NOT OVER, BUT NO EVIDENCES YET THE TOP WAS IN

三点说明：

  1. 从几天的time frame看，可能还没有跌完。但这并不意味着the top was in，因为一般情况下，牛牛至少还会去测试01/26的high。
  2. 有略大于50%的机会，会有一周到两周的pullback (1 or 2 weekly red bars)。
  3. 我对中期和长期的预测作了改动，以具体的交易信号为准，因为单凭几张图或者几个统计，告诉你中期或者长期要到哪哪哪，既没有实用价值也不容易准且并不是总有东东可说，还不如来点实际的。

下面的图解释了为什么说还没有跌完以及为什么还不能说the top was in。

EvilPlan

下面的统计算是从第三方的角度证明短期还会有回调吧。

ISEE

那么，为什么说有略大于50%的机会，会有一周到两周的pullback？

SPX weekly Doji，有50%的机会意味着回调，也有50%的机会意味着continue up。考虑到volume（小棒棒但是volume surge，意味着distribution喔，小棒棒with decreased volume才是consolidation哈，不要搞混了）以及primary bear trend line的因素，所以我猜这个Doji bearish的成分比较大一些。

SPXWeekly

此外，我认为这个weekly Doji bearish成分比较大一点还有另外两个理由：

  • T2112还是太高。下周大涨特涨的话，多半还会掉下来，因为这个地球上所有的东东都无法克服重力的影响。

T2112

  • 别忘了OEX Open Interest Ratio。

OEXOpenInterestRatio

THE INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND IS UP

THE LONG-TERM ACCORDING TO OUR SIMPLE STRATEGY IS LONG SINCE JANUARY

  • According to the January Barometer, 80%+ chances, 2012 will end in positive territory.