Summary:
Sentiment is a little too bullish so don't be too bullish.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | EMOTION | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | Disbelieve | ||
| Intermediate | Down | Neutral | ||
| Short-term | *Down | Neutral | ||
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model | 11/17 L | *Adjust Stop Loss | *11/19 Low |
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| Reversal Bar |
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| NYMO Sell | *Sell short if Open > Close tomorrow |
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| VIX ENV | ||||
| Patterns ect. |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK
The pullback today may mean nothing and because tomorrow is Friday and OE so probably we won’t see any follow-through. However from the sentiment survey and the Rydex Fund traders’ actions, the retailers are a little too bullish, so don’t get too bullish here especially if the market rebound huge tomorrow. Overall, I still maintain the call for “consolidation then pullback”.
Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey.
AAII.
Rydex Fund traders buying bullish fund to bearish fund ratio.
Pay attention to the following charts tomorrow:
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), the bull’s hope is SOX rises sharply starting from tomorrow otherwise it looks almost a sure thing that a negative divergence exists between COMPQ and SOX. This usually means an important top.
2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, breakout trend line, if held tomorrow, then at least we’re at a short-term top.
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, another top signal. Besides, NYMO Sell setup will be confirmed if Open > Close tomorrow. This setup has a 65% winning rate and 5.2 gain/loss ratio, so it’s a fairly decent setup.
SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE
INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE