Summary:
Expect a short-term pullback soon.
| TREND | MOMENTUM | EMOTION | COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | Disbelieve | ||
| Intermediate | Down | Neutral | ||
| Short-term | Up | Neutral | ||
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | INSTRUCTION | STOP LOSS | Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model | 12/21 L |
*Adjust Stop Loss |
*breakeven | |
| Reversal Bar | 12/21 L |
*Adjust Stop Loss |
*breakeven |
|
| NYMO Sell |
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| VIX ENV | ||||
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE
Nothing new, very bullish seasonality, see12/18/2009 Market Recap, but since the Options Speculation Index is way too bullish so I doubt how high the market could go.
As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, something big is going to happen. Unfortunately I don’t know if it’s bullish or bearish. However, 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch argues for a top again today and this time it adds one more red cycle. So as usual, the cliche: It’s OK to be bullish but proceed with caution.
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK SOON
No idea about tomorrow. However for all the indicators listed in www.sentimentrader.com, there’re 30% of them at bullish extremes today. The last time I mentioned this was in 12/14/2009 Market Recap, SPY had almost 4 days down swing thereafter. So again, be careful here.
INTERESTING CHARTS:
1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily), the Bearish 1-2-3 Formation is confirmed.
