OK, the much anticipated Santa Rally ended, the results are listed below. Not bad but not impressive either.
Now, what about the seasonality after the Santa Rally? According to www.sentimentrader.com, using SPY prices, the period from the 2nd trading day of the year, through two weeks later, was positive only 29% of the years since '95, with a negatively skewed risk/reward (-4.0% versus +1.9%). Well, let’s wait and see.
One trick today, the CPC < 0.8 triggered a Firework trading setup (forget about the setup name for now – it’s a long story, basically it’s a long setup) which had 67% successful rate in the past. Not working good recently, so again pay attention to the past failures (Blue cycles): If small bar again the next trading day or the firework shoots high then falls to the ground on the same day then most likely this is a failed setup.
